“hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies”
Andy Dufresne - Shawshank Redemption
Two decades of the Bolivarian Revolution has taken its toll. The Venezuelan economy is now 40% of its size in 2013 (the year Chavez died). A few graphs that tell the story:
The picture changed significantly since the beginning of January. The opposition parties supported Juan Guaidó from Voluntad Polular to lead the legitimate national assembly, an event that set off a chain of events which have re-ignited hope of change in Venezuela.
Below are a few reasons to be optimistic:
1- Local leadership rallying in unison & with a plan
These series of events were not by accident. They have been well planned and executed by a lot of opposition leaders from inside and outside of Venezuela. This group managed a legal claim to the presidency through the national assembly and gathered support from the international community to do it. Now, there is a clear plan to remove Maduro from power, set up a transitional government and hold free elections in Venezuela.
2- Coordinated international support
The world has had to choose sides on the Venezuelan case during the last month, and the results are in. Juan Guaidó has the support of the USA, Europe, the vast majority of Latin America, as well as many other nations (primarily democratic). The international community is calling for a change in Venezuela, starting from the Trump office.
3- Economic sanctions
Recent economic sanctions by the USA to PDVSA will begin to impact the country. Francisco Monaldi says it best in this post about the significance of the measures. Sure, the Government is likely to try to maneuver but it will sure be difficult. The negative aspect is that if these sanctions are successful (I believe they will be), it will be even tougher for the Venezuelan economy and its people... at least until things change.
4- Strong local discontent with Maduro
The economic crisis, corruption, insecurity, inflation, lack of health and food, among others, have brought the Venezuelan people to its knees. There is evidence in all neighborhoods where protests / looting have been a constant during past years. However, the state monopoly on media channels (radio / tv) makes it hard for the population to know the details of what is going on. This is one of the biggest challenges to overcome, but the discontent is there.
The Maduro government is standing its ground. Advocating a willingness to negotiate, proposing elections for the national assembly, trying to be resourceful in bypassing economic sanctions and preparing troops to defend the Venezuelan boarder. Let´s not forget that this government has built a power structure for 20 years and it will not be easy to overthrow.
However, I am optimistic that the actions set in place in 2019 will provide Venezuela the opportunity for change. The strategy set out by local leadership, in unison with key international leaders (USA, Grupo de Lima & Europe) will continue to increase its pressure points on the economy, the military and local support for change. Last few weeks have been slow in terms of news, but I truly believe that the change will come gradually and then suddenly.
The ultimate goal is to generate this change in government as soon as possible. However, a real challenge will be once the opportunity of change appears, how the country manages the transition and sets the course to a strong recovery. It will not be easy but definitely doable!